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RDRutherford

November 3, 2006

PRICE OF PEACE - 1 - Gujarat Muslims give up rights, buy truce

Filed under: Uncategorized, India — rdrutherford @ 10:24 pm
 

IN A few months, it will be five years since Shakil Bhai last heard the call of the muezzin from the mosque by the village pond. In a few months, it will be five years since the life of the gentle grocer and his community changed.On March 1, 2002, as religious fury raged through Gujarat and hundreds fell to daggers and bullets, Shakil’s family fled, bare foot, from their home in Sunderna, 75 km southeast of Ahmedabad. Rioters vandalised Shakil’s grocery shop and home, and burnt down his lucrative kerosene depot. The four minarets of the village mosque were smashed and the dargah, or mausoleum, of a locally revered priest was damaged. The dargah has since been repaired but the mosque remains without a head.

“Yes, there were massacres and there was looting, but one has to move on,” said Shakil, 26. “We have returned. But the vil lage elders said, ‘If you don’t compromise, you cannot stay here.’” Seated on a bag of flour in his renovated shop, he added, “Now there is no azaan (the call to prayers from mosques).” The grocer’s tale resonates with thousands of Gujarati Muslim families, especially in many of the 16 districts worst-hit by the 2002 riots.

Business-like Gujarat knows its dealmaking and give-and-take. Thousands of Muslims, who returned to Hindu-majori ty villages after the riots, are rebuilding their lives. But often they have to live on harsh terms.

In many villages, Muslims have given up the azaan. In others, they cannot openly sell meat and must observe festivals as low-key affairs. Most significantly a large number of , Muslims have had to withdraw criminal cases they had filed against fellow villagers, a necessary condition for their return.

Manibhai Patel, a 45-year-old villager, said, “The Muslims mind their business, we mind ours. No fighting. But we don’t often go towards their houses.” Gujarat has a history of communal riots, but the 2002 one was the most brutal, spilling over to many of the 18,000 villages.

“Even now the whole system is wrapped up in this compromise business,” said Preeta Jha, coordinator of Nyayagraha, a voluntary group. As HT discovered, deals are still under way, brokered by village heads and at times by local officials.

October 29, 2006

Filed under: Uncategorized — rdrutherford @ 9:09 pm

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Published on October 30 2006, Page 1
 
HT ONLY IN - Defence forces lose over 2,000 officers
 
 
FROM GENERALS and rear ad- mirals to lieutenants, officers at all levels are quitting India’s armed forces, worsening an al- ready severe manpower shortage. Figures made available by the army and the navy reveal that 2,712 officers sought discharge over the past five years. Of these 2,061 were al- lowed to leave. The air force refused to provide figures, saying the infor- mation “may be indica- tive of morale (and)… will prejudicially affect the security of the State”. The figures are the first such publicly shared estimates by the armed forces. According to official records, many offi- cers are dissatisfied with their professional growth and leave for better options. “There are a large num- ber of people seeking bet- ter opportunities outside the army, which is a sad thing, be- cause obviously they are leaving the profession that was their first choice,” General (retd) V.P. Malik, former army chief, told the Hin- dustan Times. “On one side are the material aspects like pay, al- lowances, etc. On the other are the prolonged periods of service without much respite in field ar- eas, like insurgency-affected places, when they may have to be separated from their families.”
 
TOP
www.bodhtree.com www.pressmart.net

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October 20, 2006

Chasing the bomb

Filed under: Uncategorized — rdrutherford @ 7:03 pm

What we know, and are trying to find out, about North Korea’s recent nuclear test.Geoff Brumfiel
What more have we learned about last week’s North Korean test?


The WC-135W aircraft, dispatched by the United States, reportedly picked up ‘debris’ from the blast.

USAF

Scientists have been able to confirm that it was indeed a nuclear weapon. US intelligence is reporting that the explosive force of the bomb was less than a kiloton of TNT, and used plutonium as opposed to uranium.

How do we know all that?

The first clues came from seismic data immediately after the blast. A sharp pulse of seismic waves meant it was a man-made explosion and the size suggested it was too big to be a conventional weapon but too small to be a successful nuclear test - more likely a ‘fizzle’ (see ‘The fizzle heard around the world‘).

Satellites trained on the site caught additional details, such as signs of activity around the test site (including, apparently, a volleyball game going on at the dorms nearby).

But the critical information came in the days following the blast, when Japan and the United States dispatched reconnaissance aircraft to the edge of North Korean airspace. Those planes scooped up huge volumes of air looking for radioactive traces. US officials say they detected some “radioactive debris” from the blast.

What “radioactive debris” exactly?

That information, considered highly sensitive, has not been released. The most likely candidate would be Xenon-133, a radioactive isotope created in nuclear explosions. Xenon-133 is a noble gas, which means it’s chemically inert and can hang around in the air for days after the blast.

But Xenon-133 alone wouldn’t be enough to tell that the bomb was made of plutonium, according to Ivan Oelrich, a chemist and nuclear expert at the Federation of American Scientists, a Washington-based nuclear watchdog. To narrow it down to plutonium would require further information about the isotopes released by the blast.

Oelrich notes that during the Cold War, the word “debris” was used to mean unexploded particles from a bomb, which sometimes leak out from underground tests. If such trace particles have been collected, they would tell us a lot more about the exact makeup of the bomb.

Why does the exact composition of the bomb matter?

The fact that it is apparently a plutonium bomb makes it highly likely that it came from North Korea’s long-standing, indigenous plutonium-based programme, rather than imports. If the exact composition of the bomb can be determined, then intelligence agencies might be able to learn a great deal about how this programme refines plutonium. The composition might also provide hints as to why the bomb ‘fizzled’.

The Japanese and South Koreans have said the North may be preparing a second test. What might this mean?

It might suggest that the problem with the first bomb was relatively simple: perhaps a miscalculation with the conventional explosives used to set off the nuclear charge, rather than a problem with the fissile material. If the plutonium material was not made correctly, this would present a problem that would take much longer to fix.

So does North Korea have a useable bomb?

At the moment, it seems unlikely. The test probably used a bomb too heavy to put atop a missile, and the yield suggests that the North hasn’t yet perfected their device. But there are worries that they could be close to building a much improved weapon.

October 16, 2006

Ordinary Least Squares Estimation/Chi Square Key Problem

Filed under: Uncategorized — rdrutherford @ 1:12 am

Ordinary Least Squares Estimation
****************************
Dependent variable is NUMACC
8 observations used for estimation from 1 to 8
******************************
Regressor Coefficient Standard Error T-Ratio[Prob]
INPUT 15.8571 2.3190 6.8381[.000]
SHIFTHOUR 1.1429 .45922 2.4887[.047]
******************************
R-Squared .50794 R-Bar-Squared .42593
S.E. of Regression 2.9761 F-stat. F( 1, 6) 6.1935[.047]
Mean of Dependent Variable 21.0000 S.D. of Dependent Variable 3.9279
Residual Sum of Squares 53.1429 Equation Log-likelihood -18.9257
Akaike Info. Criterion -20.9257 Schwarz Bayesian Criterion -21.0051
DW-statistic 3.0376
****************************

Diagnostic Tests
****************************
* Test Statistics * LM Version * F Version *
****************************
* * * *
* A:Serial Correlation*CHSQ( 1)= 2.4771[.116]*F( 1, 5)= 2.2426[.195]*
* * * *
* B:Functional Form *CHSQ( 1)= .014337[.905]*F( 1, 5)= .0089767[.928]*
* * * *
* C:Normality *CHSQ( 2)= .44269[.801]* Not applicable *
* * * *
* D:Heteroscedasticity*CHSQ( 1)= .52281[.470]*F( 1, 6)= .41953[.541]*
******************************
A:Lagrange multiplier test of residual serial correlation
B:Ramsey’s RESET test using the square of the fitted values
C:Based on a test of skewness and kurtosis of residuals
D:Based on the regression of squared residuals on squared fitted values

October 12, 2006

Huge Iraqi death estimate sparks controversy

Filed under: Uncategorized — rdrutherford @ 12:46 pm

Published online: 11 October 2006; | doi:10.1038/news061009-9

Authors of study deny accusations of political bias.Jim Giles


This bomb in Baghdad reportedly killed at least eight people and wounded 31.

MOHAMMED HATO/AP/EMPICS

Have over 650,000 people, or 2.5% of the population, really died in Iraq as a result of the US-led invasion?

That’s the conclusion of a study published in The Lancet this week. But the number has attracted criticism from other researchers who say the result is a major over-estimate, and may have been published for political reasons.

The team behind the figures strongly denies the criticisms. They stress that their methods are well established, and the assumptions they use are validated by other data.

The new number comes from a survey of 1,849 households in 16 regions of Iraq. Teams of questioners organised by the Al Mustansiriya University in Baghdad asked people about household members that had died between January 2002, before the invasion, up to July 2006. They documented 82 deaths in the period before the invasion, and 547 during the conflict.

An extrapolation of this data suggests that the number of deaths per thousand people per year has leapt from 5.5 to 13.3 over that period. Across the whole country, say the researchers, that figure equates to a total of 654,965 more deaths than would have been expected from pre-invasion rates. Just over 600,000 of those were caused by direct violence, the team adds.

The figure is much bigger than previous estimates.

Conflict figures

“I doubt it is large as they say,” says Jon Pedersen, a social scientist at Fafo, an independent research centre is Oslo, Norway. Pedersen helped run a United Nations study that concluded between 18,000 and 29,000 people died as a result of violence between the start of the war and May 2004.

He says that violence has become more frequent since his study, but doubts whether the real number can be so much bigger than media reports suggest. Iraq Body Count, a website that collates mortality figures from media sources, puts the current figure at around 45,000.

“We are told about at least 30 to 40 deaths per day just from news reports,” says Pedersen. “But 500 per day is very different.”

Pederson also points out that the pre-invasion death rate recorded by the Al Mustansiriya team is very low. Figures from the United Nations Children’s’ Fund from before the war put the number at around 13 deaths per thousand per year. If correct, this suggests almost no increase that can be attributed to the conflict.

But Gilbert Burnham, co-director of the Center for Refugee and Disaster Response at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland and a member of the team that helped design the study, says that neither criticism stands up to scrutiny. He says that pre-war mortality figures from other sources, such the US Central Intelligence Agency, are in line with his data.

Reports of deaths, adds Burnham, were backed up by a death certificate in 92% of the 629 cases they collected. “We recorded what people told us,” he says. “We’re not making up deaths.”

Election countdown

Burnham’s group is having also to fight off criticism that its work is somehow political in nature. When he released a previous estimate of Iraqi death tolls in 2004, one team member said that they had wanted to get the result out before the US presidential election, so that “both candidates would be forced to pledge to protect civilian lives in Iraq”. The quote was then used by supporters of the Iraq war to brand Burnham’s research as politically biased.

With mid-term US elections due next month, Burnham’s team is open to the same accusations. Debarati Guha-Sapir, director of the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters in Brussels, says that Burnham’s team have published “inflated” numbers that “discredit” the process of estimating death counts.

“Why are they doing this?” she asks. “It’s because of the elections.”

“Absolutely not,” replies Burnham. He says that the paper has been delayed and that he hoped to have it out in July or August. “In our team we have some people who are opposed to the war and some who are in favour,” he notes. He points out that Iraq has been in the news constantly over the past year, and so his team would have been accused of playing politics no matter when the paper was published.

http://www.nature.com/news/2006/061009/full/061009-9.html

October 10, 2006

North Korean blast seems small for a nuke

Filed under: Uncategorized — rdrutherford @ 12:53 pm

Published online: 9 October 2006; | doi:10.1038/news061009-3

North Korean blast seems small for a nuke

News@nature.com looks at how much we know about the country’s nuclear abilities.Katharine Sanderson & Jim Giles

What has happened?


The seismic rumble was detected near Kimchaek.

USGS

On Monday morning, North Korea announced it had performed an underground test of a nuclear bomb, apparently warning China about 20 minutes beforehand. North Korea has been asked to step back from nuclear ambitions; the news of this first test has brought widespread international condemnation.

An official North Korean government statement said: “It has been confirmed that there was no such danger from radioactive emission in the course of the nuclear test, as it was carried out under scientific consideration and careful calculation. The nuclear test was conducted with indigenous wisdom and technology, 100 percent.” But international observers say there are signs that the test may not have gone perfectly.

Was the blast detected?

The South Korean Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources reported that at 10:35:27 AM, local time on 9 October 2006, a seismic tremor measuring 3.58 to 3.7 on the Richter scale was detected. The US Geological Survey later announced that they recorded seismic activity rating at 4.2 on the Richter scale.

Does that confirm the North Korean claims?


The seismic trace recorded at Inchon, South Korea, on Monday morning.

USGS Live Internet Seismic Server

Probably, but not in isolation. It is easy to say that the blast was an explosion rather than an earthquake by looking at the seismic signal: an explosion has a much sharper start than a quake. But to identify the details of a nuclear explosion will take more delving. Scientists will pour over seismic data in the coming days. To get a complete picture, the geology of the rock will also need to be considered.

Radionuclide analysis of particles leaked into the atmosphere by the blast can also give evidence of a nuclear explosion. But again these data need to be collected and analysed, which should take 2 or 3 days.

International networks of seismology and radionuclide stations exist to do this kind of testing and verification.

Satellite images of any subsidence craters may also help confirm the underground test.

How big was the blast?


The Nevada nuclear test site in the United States shows craters from previous underground explosions.

US Department of Energy

Estimates for the bomb’s yield (the amount of energy discharged when the weapon is detonated, in the equivalent mass of trinitrotoluene, or TNT) differ widely, from 550 tons of TNT to 5-15 kilotons (this last a Russian estimate). By comparison, the Hiroshima bomb was about 12.5 kilotons.

The lower estimate is very small: it would be difficult to build a bomb with a critical mass of plutonium that creates a blast like this. It may be that the bomb didn’t completely detonate, or that the chain reaction didn’t go to completion.

Does anyone know what kind of bomb it was?

Most likely plutonium, although North Korea has been under suspicion for having a uranium enrichment programme. North Korea is estimated to have between 7 and 24 kilograms of plutonium, which depending on how much is needed for a bomb (4 to 8 kilograms) could produce only just enough for one bomb or up to four.

To create a blast this size without a nuclear reaction, a huge amount of TNT would be needed — and a very large underground hole would have to be excavated, which would be easily spotted by spy cameras.

Could North Korea launch a nuclear attack?

Rumours are rife that an arms race will ensue. Japan, China and South Korea are under close scrutiny. As far as North Korea’s progress goes, they tested a missile in July this year, which exploded on take off. The worry is now that North Korea could piggyback a nuclear device onto a missile. This would require a small and light nuclear device, and miniaturizing nuclear fission is a very technical domain. How far North Korea is in succeeding, only they know.

http://www.nature.com/news/2006/061009/full/061009-3.html

August 29, 2006

Details Emerge in British Terror Case

Filed under: Uncategorized — rdrutherford @ 6:19 pm

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/28/world/europe/28plot.html?ei=5094&en=09d0e2102978e4b1&hp=&ex=1156824000&partner=homepage&pagewanted=all]Details Emerge in British Terror CaseBy DON VAN NATTA Jr., ELAINE SCIOLINO and STEPHEN GREY
Published: August 28, 2006

LONDON, Aug. 27 — On Aug. 9, in a small second-floor apartment in East London, two young Muslim men recorded a video justifying what the police say was their suicide plot to blow up trans-Atlantic planes: revenge against the United States and its “accomplices,” Britain and the Jews.

“As you bomb, you will be bombed; as you kill, you will be killed,” said one of the men on a “martyrdom” videotape, whose contents were described by a senior British official and a person briefed about the case. The young man added that he hoped God would be “pleased with us and accepts our deed.”

As it happened, the police had been monitoring the apartment with hidden video and audio equipment. Not long after the tape was recorded that day, Scotland Yard decided to shut down what they suspected was a terrorist cell. That action set off a chain of events that raised the terror threat levels in Britain and the United States, barred passengers from taking liquids on airplanes and plunged air traffic into chaos around the world.

The ominous language of seven recovered martyrdom videotapes is among new details that emerged from interviews with high-ranking British, European and American officials last week, demonstrating that the suspects had made considerable progress toward planning a terrorist attack. Those details include fresh evidence from Britain’s most wide-ranging terror investigation: receipts for cash transfers from abroad, a handwritten diary that appears to sketch out elements of a plot, and, on martyrdom tapes, several suspects’ statements of their motives.

But at the same time, five senior British officials said, the suspects were not prepared to strike immediately. Instead, the reactions of Britain and the United States in the wake of the arrests of 21 people on Aug. 10 were driven less by information about a specific, imminent attack than fear that other, unknown terrorists might strike.

The suspects had been working for months out of an apartment that investigators called the “bomb factory,” where the police watched as the suspects experimented with chemicals, according to British officials and others briefed on the evidence, all of whom spoke on condition of anonymity, citing British rules on confidentiality regarding criminal prosecutions.

In searches during raids, the police discovered what they said were the necessary components to make a highly volatile liquid explosive known as HMTD, jihadist materials, receipts of Western Union money transfers, seven martyrdom videos made by six suspects and the last will and testament of a would-be bomber, senior British officials said. One of the suspects said on his martyrdom video that the “war against Muslims” in Iraq and Afghanistan had motivated him to act.

Investigators say they believe that one of the leaders of the group, an unemployed man in his 20’s who was living in a modest apartment on government benefits, kept the key to the alleged “bomb factory” and helped others record martyrdom videos, the officials said.

Hours after the police arrested the 21 suspects, police and government officials in both countries said they had intended to carry out the deadliest terrorist attack since Sept. 11.

Later that day, Paul Stephenson, deputy chief of the Metropolitan Police in London, said the goal of the people suspected of plotting the attack was “mass murder on an unimaginable scale.” On the day of the arrests, some officials estimated that as many as 10 planes were to be blown up, possibly over American cities. Michael Chertoff, the secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, described the suspected plot as “getting really quite close to the execution stage.”

But British officials said the suspects still had a lot of work to do. Two of the suspects did not have passports, but had applied for expedited approval. One official said the people suspected of leading the plot were still recruiting and radicalizing would-be bombers.

While investigators found evidence on a computer memory stick indicating that one of the men had looked up airline schedules for flights from London to cities in the United States, the suspects had neither made reservations nor purchased plane tickets, a British official said. Some of their suspected bomb-making equipment was found five days after the arrests in a suitcase buried under leaves in the woods near High Wycombe, a town 30 miles northwest of London.

Another British official stressed that martyrdom videos were often made well in advance of an attack. In fact, two and a half weeks since the inquiry became public, British investigators have still not determined whether there was a target date for the attacks or how many planes were to be involved. They say the estimate of 10 planes was speculative and exaggerated.

In his first public statement after the arrests, Peter Clarke, chief of counterterrorism for the Metropolitan Police, acknowledged that the police were still investigating the basics: “the number, destination and timing of the flights that might be attacked.”

A total of 25 people have been arrested in connection with the suspected plot. Twelve of them have been charged. Eight people were charged with conspiracy to commit murder and preparing acts of terrorism. Three people were charged with failing to disclose information that could help prevent a terrorist act, and a 17-year-old male suspect was charged with possession of articles that could be used to prepare a terrorist act. Eight people still in custody have not been charged. Five have been released. All the suspects arrested are British citizens ranging in age from 17 to 35.

Despite the charges, officials said they were still unsure of one critical question: whether any of the suspects was technically capable of assembling and detonating liquid explosives while airborne.

A chemist involved in that part of the inquiry, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was sworn to confidentiality, said HMTD, which can be prepared by combining hydrogen peroxide with other chemicals, “in theory is dangerous,” but whether the suspects “had the brights to pull it off remains to be seen.”

While officials and experts familiar with the case say the investigation points to a serious and determined group of plotters, they add that questions about the immediacy and difficulty of the suspected bombing plot cast doubt on the accuracy of some of the public statements made at the time.

“In retrospect,’’ said Michael A. Sheehan, the former deputy commissioner of counterterrorism in the New York Police Department, “there may have been too much hyperventilating going on.”

Some of the suspects came to the attention of Scotland Yard more than a year ago, shortly after four suicide bombers attacked three subway trains and a double-decker bus in London on July 7, 2005, a coordinated attack that killed 56 people and wounded more than 700. The investigation was dubbed “Operation Overt.’’

The Police Are Tipped Off

The police were apparently tipped off by informers. One former British counterterrorism official, who was working for the government at the time, said several people living in Walthamstow, a working-class neighborhood in East London, alerted the police in July 2005 about the intentions of a small group of angry young Muslim men.

Walthamstow is best known for its faded greyhound track and the borough of Waltham Forest, where more than 17,000 Pakistani immigrants live in the largest Pakistani enclave in London.

Armed with the tips, MI5, Britain’s domestic security services, began an around-the-clock surveillance operation of a dozen young men living in Walthamstow — bugging their apartments, tapping their phones, monitoring their bank transactions, eavesdropping on their Internet traffic and e-mail messages, even watching where they traveled, shopped and took their laundry, according to senior British officials.

The initial focus of the investigation was not about possible terrorism aboard planes, but an effort to see whether there were any links between the dozen men and the July 7 subway bombers, or terrorist cells in Pakistan, the officials said.

The authorities quickly learned the identity of the man believed to have been the leader of the cell, the unemployed man in his mid-20’s, who traveled at least twice within the past year to Pakistan, where his activities are still being investigated.

Last June, a 22-year-old Walthamstow resident, who is among the suspects arrested Aug. 10, paid $260,000 cash for a second-floor apartment in a house on Forest Road, according to official property records. The authorities noticed that six men were regularly visiting the second-floor apartment that came to be known as the “bomb factory,” according to a British official and the person briefed about the case.

Two of the men, who were likely the bomb-makers, were conducting a series of experiments with chemicals, said the person briefed on the case.

MI5 agents secretly installed video and audio recording equipment inside the apartment, two senior British officials said. In a secret search conducted before the Aug. 10 raids, agents had discovered that the inside of batteries had been scooped out, and that it appeared several suspects were doing chemical experiments with a sports drink named Lucozade and syringes, the person with knowledge of the case said. Investigators have said they believe that the suspects intended to bring explosive chemicals aboard planes inside sports drink bottles.

In that apartment, according to a British official, one of the leaders and a man in his late 20’s met at least twice to discuss the suspected plot, as MI5 agents secretly watched and listened. On Aug. 9, just hours before the police raids occurred in 50 locations from East London to Birmingham, the two men met again to discuss the suspected plot and record a martyrdom video.

As one of the men read from a script before a videocamera, he recited a quotation from the Koran and ticked off his reasons for the “action that I am going to undertake,” according to the person briefed on the case. The man said he was seeking revenge for the foreign policy of the United States, and “their accomplices, the U.K. and the Jews.” The man said he wanted to show that the enemies of Islam would never win this “war.”

Beseeching other Muslims to join jihad, he justified the killing of innocent civilians in America and other Western countries because they supported the war against Muslims through their tax dollars. They were too busy enjoying their Western lifestyles to protest the policies, he added. Though British officials usually release little information about continuing investigations, Scotland Yard took the unusual step of disclosing some detailed information about the investigation last Monday, when the suspects were charged.

A Trove of Evidence

“There have been 69 searches,” Mr. Clarke, the chief antiterrorist police official from Scotland Yard, said Monday. “These have been in houses, flats and business premises, vehicles and open spaces.”

Investigators also seized more than 400 computers, 200 mobile phones and 8,000 items like memory sticks, CD’s and DVD’s. “The scale is immense,” Mr. Clarke said. “Inquiries will span the globe.”

He said those searches revealed a trove of evidence, and officials and others last week provided additional details.

Four of the law firms that are defending suspects declined to comment.

When police officers knocked down the door to the second-floor apartment on Forest Road, they found a plastic bin filled with liquid, batteries, nearly a dozen empty drink bottles, rubber gloves, digital scales and a disposable camera that was leaking liquid, the person with knowledge of the case said. The camera might have been a prototype for a device to smuggle chemicals on the plane.

In the pocket of one of the suspects, the police found the computer memory stick that showed he had looked up airline schedules for flights from London to the United States, a British official said. The man is said to have had a diary that included a list that the police interpreted as a step-by-step plan for an attack. The items included batteries and Lucozade bottles. It also included a reminder to select a date.

In the homes of a number of the suspects, the police found jihadist literature and DVD’s about “genocide” in Iraq and Palestine, according to British officials. In one house searched by the police in Walthamstow, the authorities found a copy of a book called “Defense of the Muslim Lands.”

A “last will and testament” for one of the accused was said to have been found at his brother’s home. Dated Sept. 24, 2005, the will concludes, “What should I worry when I die a Muslim, in the manner in which I am to die, I go to my death for the sake of my maker.” God, he added, can if he wants “bless limbs torn away!!!”

Looking for Global Ties

In addition, the British authorities are scouring the evidence for clues to whether there is a global dimension to the suspected plot, particularly the extent to which it was planned, financed or supported in Pakistan, and whether there is a connection to remnants of Al Qaeda. They are still trying to determine who provided the cash for the apartment and the computer equipment and telephones, officials said.

Several of the suspects had traveled to Pakistan within weeks of the arrests, according to an American counterterrorism official.

At a minimum, investigators say at least one of the suspects’ inspiration was drawn from Al Qaeda. One of the suspects’ “kill-as-they-kill” martyrdom video was taken from a November 2002 fatwa by Osama bin Laden.

British officials said many of the questions about the suspected plot remained unanswered because they were forced to make the arrests before Scotland Yard was ready.

The trigger was the arrest in Pakistan of Rashid Rauf, a 25-year-old British citizen with dual Pakistani citizenship, whom Pakistani investigators have described as a “key figure” in the plot.

In 2000, Mr. Rauf’s father founded Crescent Relief London, a charity that sent money to victims of last October’s earthquake in Pakistan. Several suspects met through their involvement in the charity, a friend of one of them said. Last week, Britain froze the charity’s bank accounts and opened an investigation into possible “terrorist abuse of charitable funds.” Leaders of the charity have denied the allegations.

Several senior British officials said the Pakistanis arrested Rashid Rauf without informing them first. The arrest surprised and frustrated investigators here who had wanted to monitor the suspects longer, primarily to gather more evidence and to determine whether they had identified all the people involved in the suspected plot.

But within hours of Mr. Rauf’s arrest on Aug. 9 in Pakistan, British officials heard from intelligence sources that someone connected to him had tried to contact some of the suspects in East London. The message was interpreted by investigators as a possible signal to move forward with the plot, officials said.

“The plotters received a very short message to ‘Go now,’ ” said Franco Frattini, the European Union’s security commissioner, who was briefed by the British home secretary, John Reid, in London. “I was convinced by British authorities that this message exists.”

A senior British official said the message from Pakistan was not that explicit. But, nonetheless, investigators here had to change their strategy quickly.

“The aim was to keep this operation going for much longer,” said a senior British security official who requested anonymity because of confidentiality rules. “It ended much sooner than we had hoped.”

From then on, the British government was driven by worst-case scenarios based on a minimum-risk strategy.

British investigators worried that word of Mr. Rauf’s arrest could push the London suspects to destroy evidence and to disperse, raising the possibility they would not be able to arrest them all. But investigators also could not rule out that there could be an unknown second cell that would try to carry out a similar plan, officials said.

Mr. Clarke, as the country’s top antiterrorism police official in London with authority over police decisions, ordered the arrests.

But it was left to Mr. Reid, who has been home secretary since May and is a former defense secretary, to decide at emergency meetings of police, national security and transport leaders, what else needed to be done. Mr. Reid and Mr. Clarke declined repeated requests for interviews.

Prime Minister Tony Blair was on vacation in Barbados, where he was said to have monitored events in London; Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott did not attend the meeting.

“While the arrests were unfolding, the Home Office raised Britain’s terror alert level to “critical,” as the police continued their raids of suspects’ homes and cars. All liquids were banned from carry-on bags, and some public officials in Britain and the United States said an attack appeared to be imminent. In addition to Mr. Stephenson’s remark that the attack would have been “mass murder on an unimaginable scale,” Mr. Reid said that attacks were “highly likely” and predicted that the loss of life would have been on an “unprecedented scale.”

Two weeks later, senior officials here characterized the remarks as unfortunate. As more information was analyzed and the British government decided that the attack was not imminent, Mr. Reid sought to calm the country by backing off from his dire predictions, while defending the decision to raise the alert level to its highest level as a precaution.

In lowering the threat level from critical to severe on Aug. 14, Mr. Reid acknowledged: “Threat level assessments are intelligence-led. It is not a process where scientific precision is possible. They involve judgments.”

Reporting for this article was contributed by William J. Broad from New York, Carlotta Gall from Pakistan, David Johnston and Mark Mazzetti from Washington.
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August 6, 2006

Japan aims to build Moon base by 2030

Filed under: Uncategorized — rdrutherford @ 3:16 pm

Japan aims to build Moon base by 2030

Ambitious plan surprises fellow space agencies.Michael Hopkin & Ichiko Fuyuno


Building plans: could a base appear on the Moon within decades?

© NASA

Japan’s space agency has provoked surprise among other space experts by re-affirming its ambition to build a habitable base on the Moon within decades. At a lunar exploration symposium in Tokyo this week, head of the country’s lunar and planetary exploration programme Junichiro Kawaguchi announced a deadline of 2020 for sending astronauts to the Moon, and 2030 for constructing the base.

The plan isn’t yet official: the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has not been allocated a budget for the project, which would be expected to cost up to 3 trillion yen (US$26 billion). But a vocal group of Japanese space scientists has called for the plan to become reality.

The dates and details presented by Kawaguchi build upon the country’s 20-year vision for space exploration, released in the spring of 2005, which began to consider far-flung ideas such as a Moon base.

The agency intends to kick-start the project next year by launching a satellite into lunar orbit. This would be followed over the next decade by three unmanned spacecraft to collect samples and conduct research. Once a base has been built, JAXA envisions a few astronauts manning the facility for 6 months in turn.

It has been almost four decades since man first walked on the Moon. “The Apollo programme is old, so the technology to visit the Moon is there,” says Bruno Gardini, manager of the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Aurora project in Noordwijk, Netherlands. “But in terms of the financial capacity to build a base, we are talking billions of dollars.”

Boldly go

Gardini says he is surprised by the boldness of the Japanese plan. The Aurora project is investigating robotic technologies that could potentially be used on missions to Mars, but the ESA has no plan to pursue a manned Moon station, Gardini says.

“To go to the Moon would cost so much that I don’t think anyone could afford to, except possibly America,” he says. “The financial effort associated with it is so high that it would have to be a joint global effort.”

Satoki Kurokawa, a JAXA spokesperson, told news@nature.com that it isn’t yet decided whether Japan would try to go it alone to fulfil these ambitions, or enlist international involvement.

 
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A unilateral move by any country to colonize the Moon doesn’t make sense, comments Louis Friedman of the Planetary Society in Pasadena, California. “I don’t think you’ll see separate countries each with bases on the Moon — there’s not that much to do there,” he says. “It’s not like Antarctica,” he notes, where countries do have the funding and political will to maintain independent bases.

NASA has made it clear that it wants to develop its own capacity to go to the Moon and back. “It wants to be dependent on no one,” Gardini says.

“Japan’s level of commitment can’t be compared to that of the United States,” a senior executive from JAXA, who wished to remain anonymous, told news@nature.com.

July 28, 2006

UNITED NATIONS INTERIM FORCE IN LEBANON/20 July 2006

Filed under: Uncategorized — rdrutherford @ 7:45 pm

UNITED NATIONS INTERIM FORCE IN LEBANON
(UNIFIL)
Naqoura,
20 July 2006
PRESS RELEASE
Heavy exchanges of fire continued unabated along the length of the Blue Line. The IDF and Hezbollah are also engaged in exchanges on the ground in the general areas of the villages of Marwahin in the western sector, and Marun al Ras in the central sector. A number of IDF tanks and bulldozers moved into these two areas inside Lebanese territory yesterday afternoon, and stayed throughout the night and into this morning. The IDF reportedly used incendiary shells in the area of Kafr Kila in the eastern sector. There were 31 incidents of firing close to UN positions during the past 24 hours, with three positions suffered direct hits from the Israeli side. Ten artillery shells impacted inside UN position of the Ghanaian battalion on the coast in Ras Naqoura, causing extensive damage. Four artillery shells impacted inside the patrol base of the Observer Group Lebanon in the Marun al Ras area, including three direct impacts on the building which caused extensive damage and cut electricity and communication connections. At the time of the shelling, there were 36 civilians inside the position, most of whom were women and children from the village of Marun Al Ras. There were no casualties. One artillery shell impacted inside the UNIFIL Headquarters compound in Naqoura, causing extensive damage and danger to the UNIFIL hospital where the doctors were operating at the time. Splinters of artillery shells also damaged the boundary wall of the Naqoura camp. Extensive shelling damage was reported in the Ghanaian battalion position south of Alma Ash Shab. Hezbollah firing was also reported from the immediate vicinity of the UN positions in Naqoura and Maroun Al Ras areas at the time of the incidents.
All UNIFIL positions in the area of operation remain permanently occupied and maintained by the troops. UNIFIL is still facing serious restrictions in its freedom of movement, and was able to carry out only a small number of logistic and humanitarian convoys yesterday, including the supply of water to the civilian hospital with 1000 people in Tibnin. Doctors at the UNIFIL hospital in Naqoura performed a limb saving surgery on two children from the Alma Ash Shab village, who sustained multiple splinter injuries. Some re-supply convoys to UNIFIL positions are planned for today, but the ability to move will depend on the situation on the ground. All UN positions in the close proximity of the Blue Line are facing shortages of basic supplies, and our ability to re-supply them is vital.

UNITED NATIONS INTERIM FORCE IN LEBANON/25 July 2006

Filed under: Uncategorized — rdrutherford @ 7:08 pm

UNITED NATIONS INTERIM FORCE IN LEBANON
(UNIFIL)
Naqoura,
25 July 2006
PRESS RELEASE
Heavy exchanges of fire continued along the length of the Blue Line in the last 24 hours, with a major concentration in the western sector. Hezbollah fired rockets from various locations, and the IDF continued the shelling and aerial bombardment. Yesterday and during last night, the IDF moved significant reinforcements, including a number of tanks, armored personnel carriers, bulldozers and infantry, to the area of Marun Al Ras inside Lebanese territory. The IDF advanced from that area north toward Bint Jubayl, and south towards Yarun. Intensive fighting was reported at the outskirts of both Bint Jubayl and Yarun this morning. There are a number of civilians who are still stranded in these two towns and caught in the crossfire. Four members of the Ghanaian battalion with UNFIIL were lightly injured yesterday evening, when a tank round from the Israeli side impacted inside their position south of Rmaich. They were evacuated to the UNIFIL hospital in Naqoura and their condition is stable. There was also extensive material damage to the position. There were six other incidents of firing close to UN positions from the Israeli side during the past 24 hours. This morning, Hezbollah opened small arms fire at a UNIFIL convoy consisting of two armored personnel carriers (APC) on the road between Kunin and Bint Jubayl. There was some damage to the APCs, but no casualties, and the convoy was obliged to return to Kunin. All UNIFIL positions in the area of operation remain permanently occupied and maintained by the troops. A number of positions were re-supplied yesterday, and some additional re-supply convoys are planned for today. A French ship arrived to the waters of Naqoura this morning, bringing a critical supply of water, fuel and food to UNIFIL. The ship will also evacuate a number of foreign nationals who were extricated from the border areas by UNIFIL today. This morning, UNIFIL provided a humanitarian escort for foreign nationals from the villages of Aitaroun, Ramiyh, Bayit Lif, Haris and Dibil, to Tinbin and further to Tyre. Similar humanitarian convoys, intended for Yarun, Rmaich and Ayn Ibil, were unable to reach their destination. UNIFIL is still facing serious restrictions in its freedom of movement due to the ongoing hostilities and the extensive destruction of roads and bridges throughout the area of operation. Yesterday, a UNIFIL engineering contingent from China managed to do some repairs on a key road artery between Tyre and Naqoura, and the road is now usable for traffic. However, more road destruction was reported in various areas in the south.

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